Signal & Spark: Feb 9-13 Hiring and Labor Market Report

Hannah Quintal
9h
2 min read

Executive Summary

The January jobs report showed the U.S. added 151,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent, signaling steady but cooling labor demand.

Weekly jobless claims held near 231,000, remaining elevated relative to early 2024 but below recession thresholds.

January layoffs totaled more than 108,000, the highest January count since 2009, reinforcing a cautious corporate tone entering Q1.

1 ) Monthly Jobs Report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 151,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added in January. Growth came primarily from healthcare, government, and select professional services roles.
The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent in December. Labor force participation was largely unchanged.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent month over month, with year over year wage growth moderating compared to 2023 levels.
While hiring remains positive, job growth is below the pace seen in early 2024, pointing to a gradually cooling labor market rather than contraction.

2 ) Weekly Labor Market Data

Initial unemployment claims remained around 231,000, elevated compared to mid 2024 but still within a historically moderate range.
Continuing claims remain stable, suggesting displaced workers are still finding reemployment, though likely at a slower pace.
Openings data from prior weeks showed roughly 6.5 million vacancies in December, the lowest level since 2020, reinforcing softer employer demand entering 2026.

3 ) Layoffs and Workforce Reductions

Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported 108,435 planned layoffs in January, the highest January total since the 2009 recession.
UPS announced plans to cut up to 30,000 roles this year as part of network restructuring and cost realignment.
Amazon confirmed approximately 16,000 additional corporate job cuts, extending its multi year efficiency push.
Layoff concentration remains strongest in transportation, tech, and administrative functions, while frontline and healthcare roles show relative resilience.

4 ) Sector and Hiring Activity

Healthcare continued to lead net job gains in January, reflecting structural demand rather than cyclical hiring.
Government hiring contributed meaningfully to overall payroll growth.
Technology hiring remains selective, focused on AI, data infrastructure, and revenue generating functions rather than broad based expansion.
Large scale national hiring surges were absent this week, though regional job fairs and targeted recruitment events continue.

5 ) Signals and Market Context

The current pattern resembles a low hire, selective fire environment. Employers are not aggressively expanding, but broad-based layoffs remain contained outside specific sectors.
Job openings at multi year lows, steady claims, and elevated January layoffs suggest companies are protecting margins and prioritizing efficiency over headcount growth.
The uptick in unemployment to 4.1 percent reflects normalization rather than shock, though momentum has clearly cooled compared to prior years.

6 ) What's Next?

Monitor February payroll growth for confirmation of trend direction following January’s slower expansion.
Watch private payroll data and layoff trackers for early signals before official releases.
Track sector specific strength in healthcare, logistics, and AI adjacent roles to identify pockets of durable demand within an otherwise cautious market.